Welch/Cantin Super Razor
The role of luck, timing, and having the right person think you're the shit
2 of my favorite ‘online’ people have unknowingly teamed up to create something worth thinking about. Separately these are great on their own, but I think they combine to make something extraordinary. And the whole point of posting shit online is for others to build from where you left off. Here I go…
Here is part of Taylor’s take (can’t screengrab the whole monster post, but simply click on it to open the larger post on Twitter):
Together I distilled the Cantin/Welch Super Razor:
Don’t attribute to genius what could easily be attributed to luck, incredible timing, or a combination of a half-decent idea executed with conviction at a time the world was ready for it
If I could push further distillery it might look like:
Don’t attribute to genius what the builder himself wouldn’t even attribute to genius.
Now, take this and do a thought experiment with me. Think of the team you coached last year.
What if you didn’t win over the player that has the ability to move the room? (hint, this player might not be your captain or leadership group)
Consider a reality where you don’t believe Ryan Hardy is an actual genius… The guy referenced in last week’s post (read here).
What if the loudest mouth in the Springfield locker room thought he was an idiot? That’s enough to sink a new coach. Happened to me.
Years later, what if the loudest mouth in the Steel locker room thought he is a genius and got the boys to follow and execute in lock-step?
Taylor says in his post that it’s “LUCK mixed with immaculate preparation.”
Here’s another way to think about this when you are trying to do something different and better than what players are familiar with:
This means you are banking that you have the right 20 people in the room. This means that at the minimum you need ‘the player that moves the room’ to be with you.
If 14 kids have a gut feeling you’re ‘the shit’ but never voice their social proof of approval… And the first person that audibly speaks says you suck… You might be finished before you start.
So yeah, there’s luck involved.
One more way to think of this on your way out.
Jesus had 12 Disciples that were ‘all in’ and sometimes they even had their doubts.
12 All-In guys would be less than 50% of a junior or college hockey locker room.
Maybe you’ll sleep better in your next job knowing that you will be as prepared and skilled as possible in the areas you have to be, but at the end of the day, you’re throwing dice on whether the group will move towards you or away from you first.
Just something to kick around in your brain this week…
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