I’ve got bad news.
That new book you just read…
It’s outdated already. In some cases.
Most books that come out in 2021 have had the author researching for 10 previous years. Their “current” when writing, is now 10 years old when you start reading it.
It’s good to be aware of this…
and I know what you’re saying…
What about the Lindy Effect? Doesn’t that matter?
It depends…
Here’s a bit on Lindy:
Lindy
There is something fascinating about old knowledge. In today’s culture there is tremendous value for what is brand new. Like the newest iPhone, there is an unspoken assumption that the newest thing must be the best.
However, there is a concept that was created by bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb called the Lindy Effect. He describes the Lindy Effect as “one of the most useful, robust, and universal heuristics I know.” His essay “An Expert Called Lindy” describes the idea this way, regarding Manhattan’s famous Lindy Diner.
“Actors who hung out there gossiping about other actors discovered that Broadway shows that lasted, say one hundred days, had a future life expectancy of a hundred more. For those that lasted two hundred days, two hundred more.”
In other words, the Lindy Effect means the longer something has been around, the more value it has and the longer it is likely to last into the future – the opposite of the “newer is better” mantra.
There is a time and place for Lindy, but sometimes…
The Lindy system that has been built sucks. And “newer is better” is the better option.
The art is knowing when to use Lindy and when to break the system.
Lindy Systems are Breaking
“You have to be a Harvard MBA to understand the financial system.”
“You have to invest in long-term, blue-chip, dividend-based assets to make money in the markets.”
These are quotes you still hear today from “people that are losing their grip on edge that was created long ago.”
These systems we thought were Lindy… Are breaking in front of our eyes in real-time.
Day traders are making thousands per day trading highly volatile “meme stocks.”
Crypto accounts give you a better APY than holding your money in a bank savings account.
You can study YouTube videos for free and be more financially literate than some guy with a Harvard MBA in 2021.
When you’re truly curious about how things can be better…
That’s all you need. No fancy degree required.
So, what’s the point?
Even Lindy systems break and that’s okay.
And hockey has a few Lindy systems that we’d like to take a sledgehammer to…
Exhibit A… This hiring practice.
The Problems with Hockey Hiring
Lindy Hiring in Hockey:
If you play at a high level of hockey, you can start coaching miles ahead of where your coaching ability currently sits.
This is stupid for 2 reasons:
Playing and coaching are two different skill sets so your ability to play hockey and coach hockey at high levels are unrelated
Some current pro hockey coaches are still coaching players like it’s 1970. This becomes a self-perpetuating problem
The Self-Perpetuating Problem
The problem must be identified before the solution is drawn. If you are currently employed in a capacity that is contributing to the problem, it is your choice as to whether you will recognize and perpetuate the problem or change your course in favor of the improvement of your sporting organization.
-James Smith, The Governing Dynamics of Coaching
James Smith is dead on, but we have a bigger issue.
The biggest problem is that we don’t know we are contributing to the problem.
Follow this thought train with me…
A player exits pro hockey at 35. Playing in a top-down, autocratic leadership environment. The player thinks because the coach is at the pro-level… He knows what he’s doing…
His thoughts during his career…
“ If I get a chance to coach in the future, I’ll model it after my pro coach.”
After his playing career, the coach either hires him or connects him with another coaching job.
The former player learns “the ropes” under an outdated philosophy.
After 2 years, that former pro gets a head job somewhere and perpetuates the cycle. Teaching new players in an outdated fashion.
The cycle repeats…
Mark Baker sums this up for us:
This is the antithesis of innovation and growth.
This is how a legacy system continues on for so long even when it’s inefficient.
We also need to become more aware of “The Coaching Tree Fallacy.”
The Coaching Tree Fallacy
We emulate bad leaders because of their status. They aren’t good leaders… We get a HC job somewhere and try to be the copy of something that doesn’t work.
This fallacy sparks 3 possible theories:
The further away you get from the original copy, the worse the product becomes. If you’re a copy of a copy of a copy, you might be coaching players in 2021 with 1971 methods.
Players can sniff through the lack of authenticity and bravery to do it “your way.” If you just take what New England does because you worked under Belichick and bring it to Detroit and Cleveland… It hasn’t worked. Maybe the players don’t “buy-in” to your ideas because they aren’t “your ideas.”
The first comment to the above tweet:
Will you get more chances to coach in the NFL if you coached under Belichick? Ask Josh McDaniels. The coaching tree rewards you for network effects, not coaching effects.
Lindy systems are great until you wake up and realize some weren’t designed well in the first place.
We can’t overcome the inertia to try something different because “we’ve always done it this way…” hasn’t been questioned.
Question it. All of it.
Because…
What if Lindy is BS?
Questions
What is the current system optimized for?
What is the current system producing?
Is that enough?
What should we do to change it?
We have a few thoughts...
How Do We Fix It?
In order to fix the hiring dilemma in hockey, not only does the hiring pool need to change, but the people applying to the jobs need to be better. They need to stop solely focusing on being the best “hockey-mind”, but instead aim at being a “better mind.”
The issue with hockey right now is coaches need years of experience to be deemed “qualified” for positions. And as a result, they spend years learning in the same environment that produces the same types of thinkers. They are never able to bring in new experiences or thoughts as the environment doesn’t allow for it.
They are trying to be too much of a specialist.
What the hockey world needs are more generalists. People who have an understanding of a variety of topics, who can draw from experiences from a number of fields, and those that have understood how multiple systems work, not just the “system of hockey”.
Because when we have generalists, we are able to better get a message across, better motivate players, and better realize the context of situations. And the biggest advantage generalists have over specialists is context.
The Context of Generalists
Context- the circumstances that form the setting for an event, statement, or idea, and in terms of which it can be fully understood and assessed.
Head coaches and those that hire the head coach(GM’s and Owners) need to know the “jobs to be done” of a coach… And then find someone that has an understanding of all of them.
Think of a general contractor. He needs a global understanding of the specialist jobs:
Plumbing
Electrical
Carpentry
Drywall
And then he takes it another step, how they all fit together in the larger picture.
Now think of the small business owner. When someone starts out as an entrepreneur, it’s often just a one-man show. The person designs the product. They do the marketing, sales, outreach, partnerships, customer service… All of it.
Great head coaches need to know how to do it all, and how it all fits together. It’s no surprise why some of the up-and-coming coaches in soccer started coaching 12u at the local, grassroots academy. It is at the academy level that they get to run everything:
Scouting/Recruiting
Admin
Strength and Conditioning
Teaching/Coaching
Mental Skills
They don’t get thrown into a high-level job where they have an S&C guy, a mental skills coach, and 35 office assistants. They are deeply embedded in all of it because they are the one-man show.
If these guys are too “prideful” to coach 14u, then they have no business running elite-level junior and professional organizations.
This new model can stop the self-perpetuation of our problems.
We need to develop general contractors and small business owners, not parrots that pass down the “knowledge” of the old guard.
This has been another collaboration with Kevin Nogueira.
This is also featured in my first book, The Wave
Excellent!